In the last 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH), the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, has surged over 10%, surpassing $2,100 due to the successful implementation of the Shanghai hardfork. This is the first time since August 2022 that ETH has surpassed $2,000, and investors are now wondering what is next for the cryptocurrency. To answer this question, let's consider both the bull and bear case scenarios for Ethereum.
On the bear side, on-chain data provider Santiment has pointed out that the MVRV ratio (Market Value/Realized Value) score for Ethereum is 9.95%, indicating a low risk of a drop. However, the 365-day MVRV score is at 29%, the highest level since December 2021. Moreover, there has been a strong spike in the profit vs. loss transaction ratio, with 2.59 times as many transactions in profit vs. transactions in loss today, which could be a short-term bearish signal. The amount of ETH held by shark and whale addresses, holding between 10 to 100k ETH, has also been declining over the past month.
On the bullish side, the total number of Ethereum staying on exchanges has continued to drop, and the total ETH in staking has increased. Currently, 16% of ETH is staked, and if it doubles to 32%, it will require the purchase of every single ETH on exchanges. Despite some investors unstaking their ETH after the Shanghai upgrade, ETH deposits have been growing significantly.